Doing the Splits, SOMStyle
Subchances Key to Forecasting Batters' Hits
This iss one in a series
of articles on forecasting StratOMatic baseball (~ards. Bruce Bundy has been at it since 1968 and says he
achieves up to 95 percent accuracy. But
keep in mind that only the game coin company has the correct formulas, that
many of them rely on statistics not readily available and that some ratings are subjective.
By Bruce Bundy
Theory and
trial and error are the tools of the trade when creating math formulas that reflect reality. In SOM Baseball, for example, the three
generations of XCharts reflect 30 years of such formulating prowess. The first
XChart addressed the theory that each defensive position and each player's
defensive ability has a different impact. That chart quickly filled the need
while other formulas were honed. The second XChart more accurately reflected
the amount of errors a fielder would make. But, in accomplishing its goal, the
XChart lost the ability to deliver a hit and an error on the same play. It was
trial and error that led to a true separation of range and fielding and the
third XChart.
Trial and
error also reared its ugly in Part 1: Walks. Please correct the last formula in
last month's issue (for league average walks) to read:
Al WALK = (((W 1W) * 216)1 (AB + (W IW)))I 2
Advanced Notes: Hit by pitch
(HBP) is used with walk in many instances.
FORMULA #2: HIT BY PITCH
HBP= ((HBP * 216)/(AB + HBP+ (W 1W)))
SOM HBP equals
((HBP times 216) divided by (At Bats plus HBP plus (Walks minus Intentional
Walks)))
How it works:
Because HBP only appears on the hitter's card, there is no pitcher's reduction,
resulting in a pure proportioning of MLB PAs to SOM PAs. The result is rounded to the nearest whole number. If
your computer won't round numbers off, add 0.5 to the end of the formula.
Now apply the
walk formula to the advanced side. You will need stats for Lefty AL, righty AL,
lefty NL, and righty NL totals, as well as individual leftyrighty totals.
Actual HBP should be added (AB + (WIW) + HBP))) to the walk formula's plate
appearances when making advanced cards.
SUBCHANCES
The theory of
subchances results from a need to be more precise than 216 chances will
accommodate. There are many forms of
subchances in SOM Baseball. The 120 Split Deck is the foundation for many of
them.
By dividing
each chance into 20 subchances, 4,320 different results can be obtained (20 *
216 = 4320). SOM doesn't use subchances
as often as it could, because rolling dice and drawing split cards every atbat
slows playing time and affects the game's appeal. Walks, for example, are not
subchanced, but easily could be. Trial and error has proven that walk results
stay fairly realistic despite not being subchanced. Theory suggests that the need for simplicity
sometimes outweighs the good of making the result more precise.
Each subchance
in the 120 split deck has the value of 1/20th, or ".05."
Examples: A
hatter's 3 column on "8" reads: HOMERUN

2 chan~e~3 ch~nc'~4 chance~ 
40 subchances 
14 DOUBLE 520. To determine
how much the homerun is worth, multiply the 4 subchances by .05 for a result of
.20. Because there are 5 chances to roll an "8," multiply .20 by 5.
The result is 1.00, 1 chance, or 20 subchances. The double's worth is 16
subchances, multiplied by 5 (80 subchances), and dividing by 20 (4 chances).
Another example would he a pitcher's 6 column on "9" reads:
SINGLE* 117 lineout (2h)
1820. To determine the single's worth, multiply the chance value of
"9," which is 4, by the 17 single subchances, to equal 68
subchances, or, 3.40 chances.
Hits are
subchanced. This is logical, since batting averages are based on I ,000
atbats.
FORMULA #3: BATTER'S HIT
HIT=(((BA.265)+BA)*(1fl8~somW))
SOM Batter's
Hit equals (((Batting Average minus .265) plus Batting Average) times (108
minus SOM Walk))
How
it works: Notice that Formula #1 (and Formula #2 in advanced) must be done
prior to Formula #3. The SOM WALK (and SOM HBP in advanced) must be
formulated first, as these results are incorporated into Formula #3. The
"hit" formula is a theory in two parts. The first theory is the
hitter's card must compensate for the average pitcher's card. When a pitcher
has 108 chances and a batter has 108 chances, if a pitcher surrenders a .250
batting average and the batter is supposed to hit .260, the batter's card must
be able to hit .270 to offset the pitcher's limiting him to .250 half the time
The
.265 used in the formula reflects a general league average. This number should
be recalculated every year for each league. To correctly adjust, use the
league's total batting average and add ".011." The ".011"
added to the average reflects the frequency that Groundball A++ will also
become hits. Twenty years of trial and error (the author's) is why the number
is .011 and not .009. This year's AL Batting Average was .260, NL .252. When
making 1991 AL batters, replace the .265 with .271, 1991 NL with .263.
Since walk
chances are not atbats, subtract the walk chances from the 108 card
chances. Finally, the result is to be
rounded to hundredths.
Advanced Notes: Use each AUNL leftyrighty league total to
replace .265. Hit By Pitch result must he subtracted from 108 in this manner:
(((BA .271) + BA) * (108
(HBP + (WIW))))
Continued on Next Page
1SF) STRAT FAN,
February 1992
Forecasting
Hitters' Singles, ExtraBase Hits
Continued from Previous Page
Cal Ripken hit .323 in 1991. His SOM walk is 3. The formula
would read thusly:
(((.323
 .271) + .323) * (1083)) = 39.35 or (((.375)) * (105)) = 39.35 Cal Ripken will have 42.35 onbase chances, 39.35 hit
chances out
of 105 atbat chances (minus
the 3 walk). In another 1991 AL example, Cal's
brother Billy played hurt and only hit .216. His SOM walk is 2. The formula
would read thusly:
(((.216  .271) + .216) *
(108  2)) = 16.97 or (((.161)) * (106)) =
16.97
Poor Billy
will have only 16.97 hit chances and only 18.97 total onbase chances on his
card unusable but for his good glove.
The formula
for hit chances has a 90 percentplus accuracy rating.
Subchances
make SOM click. Without them you may as well be playing APBA. From the final
statistics of the 1991 AL season, SOM can give a different amount of bits to
batters ranging from a lowly .136 to a violent .606. That's only part of the
power of 4,320 subchances.
Imagine a
batter who hits 1 triple in 287 plate appearances. If he faces the same
pitchers, SOM can numerically exact the same result. SOM has the ability to
take into account all of the pitchers faced by the batter, and, despite the low
ratio of triples to plate appearances, a triple will still appear on the
batters card. An amazing feat,
considering there is 0.3 percent (0.0034843) chance for the triple to occur.
This is
accomplished by proportioning, or sharing, the result. Most of the things that
can happen in an atbat can occur on both the pitcher's card and hitter's card.
This is how players can keep their numeric identity. Have there ever been two
completely identical SOM cards in history?
More
amazing, SOM has unlimited ability to translate card formulas to computer. Today's impurities come from the data
available and the computers themselves. Be assured that in the future's
datarich computer environment, this game can exact the result of every
hitter's every plate appearance and every pitcher's every batterfaced.
While
the computer's potential may be limitless, the cards have a mystique that the
computer cannot provide. The SOM manager physically removes an ineffective
pitcher, studies the bench for the right card, even rips up the second baseman
who chokes in the clutch. Facetoface in the big game, managers forget about
wood and ink, it's flesh and blood. That's the strength of SOM. It comes from
the power of subchances. Time to see how more subchances work.
FORMULA #4: BATTER DOUBLE
Double=((4320 * Double)I(AB+(WIW)))90
Batter's
double equals ((4,320 times Double) divided by (At Bats plus (Walks minus
Intentional Walks))) minus 90.
FORMULA #5: BATTER'S TRIPLE
Triple = ((4320 * Triple) I(AB + (WIW)))  15
Batter's Triple equals (4,320
times Triple) divided by (At Bats plus (Walks minus Intentional Walks))) minus
15.
FORMULA #6: BATTER'S HOMERUN
Homerun=((4320 * HR)/(AB+(WIW)))50
Batter's Homerun equals
((4,320 times Home Run) divided by (At Bats plus (Walks minus Intentional
Walks))) minus 50.
Row
it works: Extra base hits (XB H) have the same basic formula. The batter's XBH
per plate appearance is proportioned to the 4,320 subchances. Again, the
90,IS and 50 represent the amount of double, triple and homerun subchances
that should appear on the average pitcher's card. About 20 percent of your
calculations will result in negative numbers. Replace those with zero.
For more
precise readings, the 90,IS and 50 should be recalculated annually and by
AL/NL. The formula to determine these variables vary slightly:
AL D=(((DIPA)*4320)12)+6
The
+6 reflects the doubles that appear on the XChart. Rounded oft the AL effect
is 100, the NL 92.
AL T=(((T/PA)*4320)I2)*o.75
The
0.75 not only compensates for the XChart reduction, but for SOM' 5 apparent
practice of having twothirds of all triples occur off pitchers' cards.
AL HR=((HR/PA)*4320)12
No
adjustments needed for HR.
Advanced
notes: The formulas above apply, but remember to calculate annually, by AL/NL,
and by LIR with leftyrighty data and league totals. Also include HBPs to the plate appearances:
LHR =((432o*HR)/(AB+HBP+(w~Iw)))~5o
MYP
Cal Ripken tipped the scale at 55 with all his XBHs. His elementary side XBR total subchances should read:
D=190; T=22; HR=161. Brother Billy's subchances are D=58; T=5; HR=50, or 0.
Remember to zero all negative results.
With
a hitter's SOM hits, walks, (HBPs), doubles, triples
and homeruns now formulated, a hitter's card begins to take shape. Next month's
issue will dissect how SOM determines which card design each hitter receives.
Any comments? Write:
Bruce Bundy, 4474 Outlook Dr., Brooklyn, OH 44144.
About the STRAT FAN Cards In
This Issue
This
month marks STRAT FAN's second effort to supplement
the 24man rosters that have been a StratOMatic
characteristic for about 25 card sets.
In
October we offered 36 pitchers to fill out the 1978 staffs that needed the arms
for proper play with the computer manager. This time we offer hitters and
pitchers  48 of them  for the 1984 American League, the year of the awesome
Detroit Tigers, who went wire to~ wire for the AL East crown, then crushed
Kansas City and San Diego
in the postseason. ,
There
are 96 more cards for 1984 ahead in future issues of STRAT ~.:
FANNational League pitchers
and hitters and individual hitfing cards for NL
pitchers. The computer manager needs the extra pitchers
for 1984, too. STRAT FAN
intends to follow suit for as many past 4 seasons as possible.
These
additions boost the 1984 set to more than 770 cards  an especially valuable
tool for fullseason replays, which are becon'ing
much more common now that the computer game speeds play and statkeeping.
The
statistics for creating these cards were compiled by Luke Icraemer
of Beaverton, OR, who is making his research available for purchase.
FOR
SALE: Never before
published: Leftyirighty stats for all 1984 SOM and
STRAT FAN baseball players.
$12. Luke Kraemer, 625 NW waterhouse Ave., Beaverton,
OR 97006.