STRAT FAN, April /992                                                                                                                                                                                                     Page 10       

 CAL RIPKEN    shortstop-1                stealing-C
                                                           running 1-13

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

11

 

3

2-WALK

3-WALK
4-HOMERUN
5-groundball
(ss)A

6-HOMERUN
7-TRIPLE1-3
DOUBLE4-20
8-DOUBLE**1-6
SINGLE**7-20

9-SlNGLE

10-HOMERUN1
DOUBLE2-20
11-SINGLE
12-foulout (C)

2-gb (3b)A
3-lineout(2b)
4-lineout (3b)
5-groundball (ss)A
6-Iineout(3b)
7-groundball (3o)A
8-popout (as)
9-g round ball (aa)A~+
1C-popout(2b)
11-popout(ss)
12-flyball(lf)A

2-tIyoalI (rf)B
3-groundball (2b)B
4-groundball (p)A
5-SINGLE~
6-SINGLE
7-flyball (Il)B
6-groundball (3b)A
94lybsll (rf)B
10-SINGLE'
1-14
Iineoul(3b}
15-20
11-groundball (ss)A~+
12-lineout (2b) intoasmany oulsas possible

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Result by Rank

Split Location

Notes

I.HOMERUN

 1sthalfonly

 

2. TRIPLE

 1st half unless after HR

 

3. DOUBLE

1st half unless after HR or 3B

Followed by flyball B

 DOUBLE~*

1st half only

Followed by
SINGLE**

4. SINGLE**

2nd half only

Follows TRIPLE OrDOUBLE**

SINGLE

Never split

 

SINGLE*

1st half only

lineout follows

5. WALK

Never split

Begin at WI only if hits don't use
WI

6. HBP

Never split

Advanced aide only; place wherever
convenient


 

 


 

Plotting Batter's Card Chances


 

This is one in a series of articles on forecasting Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. Bruce Bandy has been at it since 1968 and says he achieves up to 95 percent accuracy. But keep in mind that only the game company, has the correct formulas, that many of  them rely on statistics not readily available and that some ratings are subjective.

Comments should be directed to: Let's Formulate It!, c/a Bruce Bandy, 4474 Outlook Dr., Brooklyn, OH 44144

 

By Bruce Bundy

Now that the cards are out, it's so pleas­ing to find that the elementary formulas presented in the last two issues performed at about a 97% accuracy clip. This exceeds many expectations. Just close is good enough.

Some readers already are saying they are overloaded with cardmaking concepts and formulas. Remember: It took 20 years of trial and error to be able to write the February article. Pace yourself.

Using Cal Ripken's 1991 card, we'll show how the formulas did and how the various outcomes (walks, hits, etc.) are placed on the card.

A few abbreviations to keep in mind as you look over the card patterns:

H1-H9: Hi is the batter's highest hit (usually a solid homerun or homerun split), H2 is the second highest hit and so on.

W1-W6: Priority locations for the batter's walks. W1 is usually the first priority, IF the batter has earned enough walk 'chances" to qualify at this location.

Here's a rerun of the chart that correlates dice-roll probabilities with SOM "chances" and “subchances"­

SOM 'Chances"

Dice Roll

 CHANCES

 SUBCHANCES

2

1 chance

20 subchances

 3

2 chances

40 subchances

4

3 chances

60 subchances

5

4 chances

80 subchances

6

5 chances

100 subchances

7

6 chances

120 subchances

8

5 chances

100 subchances

9

4 chances

80 subchances

10

3 chances

60 subchances

11

2 chances

40 subchances

12

1 chance

20 subchances

TOTAL

36 chances

720 subchances

 

 

    x 6 columns = 4,320 subchances

Example: There are six "chances" in 36 that, in any SOM roll, the two added dice will equal7(a 1 and 6,a 2 and 5,a 3 and 4, a 4 and 3, a 5 and 2, a 6 and 1). There is only one "chance" to roll a 12 (a 6 and 6).  Each "chance" can be split 20 ways (e.g. TRIPLE 1-2, DOUBLE 3-20). Hence, there are 120 "subchances" for dice roll 7, but only 20 "subchances" for dice roll 12.

PLOTTING HOMERS

Because Ripken had the highest batting average among his team's full-time players, he gets hatter's card pattern #1.

Using the formulas presented in the Janu­ary-March STRAT FANS, we projected Ripken's success chances, as indicated in the Result Chart shown here. As you can see, they are very close to actual. With 20-20 hind­sight, we'll plot Ripken's actual results on card pattern #1.

Now look at the Priority Chart. It dictates that we plot Homeruns first, at Hi, or dice roll 1-4. A roll where the added dice equals 4 uses up 60 subchances. According to the Result Chart, Ripken gets 163 subchances of hom­ers. So after plotting an "automatic" homer at 1-4, he still has 103 subchances of homers left.

Now go to H2, at 1-6. A roll of 6 uses lot) subchances. Still 3 subchances of homers left.

Now onto H3, at 1-7. Ah, a single split on a 7 is 6 subchances. Can't fit the remaining homers here. Or at H4 (1-8), where a single split is 5 subchances. Or at H5 (1-9), where a single split is 4 subchances. So onto H6, at 1-10, where a reading of HOMERUN 1 uses exactly the 3 remaining subchances for hom­ers.

Continued on Page 11 Page 11    STRAT FAN, April 1992

Accurately Predicting Cards


 

Continued from Page 10

[Until the cards were redesigned to include more patterns in the past two years, the cards were less accurate, in favor of simplicity. The last three subchances would have been rounded down, and eliminated].

TRIPLES, DOUBLES

Using the same procedure as the one for homers, triples is next. H3, at 1-7 is worth 6 subchances per split. Ripken gets 18 subchances for triples, so his split at roll 1-7 is TRIPLE 1 -3.

Doubles are next. The logical place to begin is at the highest unfilled hit location, H3 at 1-7. There's 17 splits, or 102 subchances left there, so make it DOUBLE 4-20. (We see from the Priority Chart that whenever a

DOUBLE is the second half of a split, it is a DOUBLE with no stars).

Subtracting 102 double subchances from Ripken's 189, there's still 87 to go. So onto 116, where the HOMERUN 1 is. With 19 splits at 3 subchances per split available, that eats up 57 more of Ripken's available subchances. Again, it's a DOUBLE with no stars.

No remaining unfilled hit locations, so go to H4, at 1-8, for the remaining doubles. Each split on an 8 is worth 5 subchances, so it will take DOUBLE** 1-6 to exhaust Ripken's supply of doubles. (As the Priority Chart indicates, first-split DOUBLE will have no stars if it is followed by a flyout, but two stars if it is followed by a single.)

On rare occasions, the formulas dictate that a batter has more extra-base-hit subchances than total hit subchances. If that happens, plot all the extra bases. SOM de­cided many moons ago that it is more impor­tant to reflect a batter's power than to reflect that same batter's inability to hit.

 

PLOTTING SINGLES

We have now used all 370 of Ripken's extra-base subchances. There are still 412 subchances for hits to go. They are singles, of course, and with that many of them, they will be easier to plot at full chances, rather than subchances.

Continued on Page 12

BATTERS' CARD               PATTERNS

#1                                        #4                                   #7

        1           2           3             1             2                      3       1             2             3

2 W 11  2            2           2           2            2            2           2           2

3 W 12  3            3           3  W2    3  W4    3            3 W4    3           3

4   H 1    4            4           4           4  W5    4            4 W3    4   W6  4

5   H 2    5            5  H 8    5   H6    5   H9    5            5 H5     5   H9   5 W2

6   H 3    6            6  H 9    6   H5    6  W1    6            6 H1     6   H8   6 W1

7   H 4    7            7 W 1    7           7            7 W6      7 113    7   H7   7

8   H 5    8            8 W 2    8   H1    8            8 W7      8           8           8

9            9            9 W 3    9   H2    9   H8    9            9 H4     9           9

10 H 6  10            10 H 10 10 H3  10   H7    10          10  H2 10           10

II  H 7   II            11 W 4 11  H4   II            II            11 H6 11           II

12        12            12 W 5 12 W3  12            12          12 W5 12           12

 

 #2                                      #5                                     #8

        1            2              3             1              2            3                  1           2                                          3

2            2            2           2           2            2            2           2           2

3            3  WS    3           3           3            3  W6    3           3   H9   3

4            4   H1    4           4           4            4  W4    4           4           4 W3

5   WI    5            5           5           5   H5    5   H7    5           5   H5   5 W4

6    H9    6   H2    6           6           6   H4    6   H8    6  WI    6   H1   6 H8

7   W3    7   H3    7           7  W2    7            7            7           7   H3   7  H7

8    H8    8   H4    8           8  W3    8            8   H6    8           8           8

9   W2    9   H5    9           9   H9    9   H1    9  W1    9           9   H4   9 W5

10        10   H6  10         10         10   H2  10  W5  10         10   H2   10

11        11   H7  11           II           II   H3  11          11         11   H6   11

12        12  W4  12         12         12          12          12         12           12

 

#3                                   #6                                     #9

        1            2             3               1             2              3               1             2            3

2            2            2           2           2            2            2           2           2  W3

3            3            3  W4    3           3            3  W2    3           3           3  W4

4            4  W1    4   H1    4           4   W4   4            4 W5     4           4

5            5   H8    5           5   H8    5   W5   5   H5    5 W6     5  W2    5   H5

6            6   H9    6   H2    6   H9    6            6   H4    6  H8     6  W1    6   H1

7            7            7   H3    7           7   W1   7            7  H7     7   H9    7   H3

8            8            8   H4    8   H7    8            8   H1    8           8           8

9            9  W6    9   H5    9           9   W6   9   H3    9           9           9   H4

10        10  W5  10   H6  10         10          10   H2  10         10         10   H2

11         II          11   H7   II           II           II   H6  11         11           Ii   H6

12        12          12  W3  12         12          12  W3  12         12         12

 

#10                               #13                                   #16

       1            2                     3            1             2             3             1            2           3

2            2 W5     2           2   H1    2           2             2  H8   2            2W5

3            3            3           3  W4    3           3             3  H7   3    W3  3 W4

4            4            4  W 1   4   H2    4  117   4             4  H6   4    W2  4

5 H2       5  H7        5  W 2    5   H3      5     5              5  H5    5  H9       5

6            6            6             6   H4      6        6              6  H4    6         6

7  H5      7  H 8      7 W 3     7   H5       7 W1      7 H 8       7            7             7

8  H4      8           8 W4      8  H6       8        8            8             8 W1      8

9  HI       9           9           9           9            9            9  H3     9           9

10 H3   10             10            10 W2    10 H9      10             10 H2   10            10

11 H6    11             11       11           11           11       11         11            11

12 H9   12              12       12 W3    12       12            12 H1   12            12

 

#11                                   #14                               #17

       1            2              3               1         2              3              1           2           3

2            2W 3        2        2.           2 H1       2           2            2 H8      2

3            3 W 2       3        3            3  H8      3           3            3  H7     3

4  W 1   4 W 5       4         4            4 H2       4 H 9       4            4 H 6     4

5            5 H 2        5 H 7      5        5  H3      5           5             5 H5     5 W2

6            6             6          6            6 H4       6           6            6 H4     6

7  H9      7  H5       7 H8        7       7  H5      7 W2       7 W3      7           7

8 W4      8  H4       8         8            8  H6      8          8            8           8 WI

9            9 H1       9           9              9            9         9            9 H3     9

10          10 H3   10         10              10        10 W3   10          10 H2 10

11          11 H6    11           11         11 H7    11       11            11 H9 11

12        12          12         12            12 W1   12       12            12 H1 12

 

#12                               #15                                   #18

                 2           3           1            2           3             I           2           3

2            2            2  W3    2           2            2   H1    2           2           2   H8

3            3            3   WI    3           3            3   H9    3           3           3   H7

4            4   H9    4           4   Wi   4            4   H2    4           4           4   H6

5    H7    5            5   H2    5           5            5   H3    5   W2   5           5   H5

6            6            6           6           6            6   H4    6           6           6   H4

7    H8    7            7   H4    7   W3  7            7   H5    7           7   W3  7

8            8  W2    8   H5    8           8            8   H6    8   WI   8           8

9            9            9   H1    9           9            9            9           9           9   H3

10        10          10   H3  10   W2 10          10   H7  10         10           10 H2

11        11          11   H6  11         11          11   H8  11         11           11 H9

12        12  WS  12  W4  12         12          12          12         12           12 H1


 

Plotting

Batters'

Chances

Continued from Page 11

So convert. Since there are 20 subchances for every chance, divide the number of subchances (412) by 20, for a total of 20.6 chances of singles.

Begin at the highest unfilled hit location, H4, where that DOUBLE** 1-6 is resting. There are 70 subchances, or 3.5 chances, remaining there.  Use them. Make it SINGLE** 7-20. (From the Priority Chart again: Whenever a SINGLE is the second half of a split, it carries two stars.)

Now, 17.1 singles chances to go. Onto H5, a 1-9. That's 4 chances. H6, at 1-10, has already been accounted for, so onto H7, at 1-11, for 2 more chances. And onto H8, at 3-5, for 4 more chances.

That leaves 7.1 singles chances. And our first dilemma. H9, the last remaining hit location at 3-10, accounts for only 3 chances. We're going to need more.

Where to go? To W1, the first priority for walks. It's at 3-6, or five chances.

In theory, we have a choice, but math settles it for us. If we fill out H9 we can't make the remaining 4.1 singles fit into any split result on a roll of 6, at WI. So, with 7.1 singles chances to account for, let's use the 5 chances at 3-6 (Wl) instead, and place the remaining 2.1 chances at H9, by splitting the result In other words, a SINGLE* 1-14. (The Priority Chart tells us that when a SINGLE is the first half of a split, it gets one star.)

 

PLOTTING WALKS

 

Walks are next. With guys like Jack Clark, they can be big problems. But Ripken has only three chances. It still is tricky.

We've already used WI, at 3-6, for a hit.

And W2, W3 and W4 each represent more chances than Ripken has walks.

So onto W5, at 3-11(2 chances) and W6, at 3-12 (1 chance). Voile! Except that Strat put the walks at 1-2 (1 chance) and 1-3 (2 chances) instead. The math is the same, but the location is different. Why?

This is a Strat-O-Matic procedure called flip-flopping to preserve the uniqueness of each card. The game company will indis­criminately flip the results to another place of equal value. There is no way to predict when SOM will do this. It is still the same total of

walks.     Next month: Plotting outs