SOM Cardmaking Clinic
All the Batter 's Formulas in One Place
By Bruce Bundy
The time has come to close the book for
awhile on the batter's card. Every fall, even this humble encryptor has always had to dig
through a steep pile of computer paper to dig up last year's
cardmaking-forecasting notes to prepare for the new batch of final stats. But,
thanks to STRAT FAN, you get this easy-to-read glossary for making your future
batters' cards (make several copies!):
FORMULA #1: BATTER'S WALKS
walk=(((W-IW)*216)/(AB+(W-IW) + HBP)) -9
Let's
Formulate It! This is one in a series of articles on
forecasting Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. Bruce Bundy has been at it since
l968 and says he achieves up to 95 percent accuracy. But keep in mind that
only the game company has the correct formulas, that many of them rely on
statistics not readily available and that some ratings are subjective. Comments
should be directed to: Let's Formulate It!, c/o Bruce Bundy, 4474 Out-look
Dr. Brooklyn, OH 44144 |
changes and a lack of historical data have made
attempts unreliable at best We're still working on it!
RUNNING
Another subjective rating. Use last
year's rating with a suggestion: Reduce the players running speed by I every
two years after they turn 32 years old.
BALLPARKS,
CLUTCH HITS
This area is still virgin territory and
will be delayed until after covering the pitcher's cards. Any ideas or example
formulas on these areas would be appreciated.
FORMULA
#2: HIT BY PITCH
hbp=((HBP*216)I(AB+ (W-IW)+
HBP))
FORMULA #3:
BATTER'S HIT
hit =(((BA-.265)+ BA)
*(108-(somW + somHBP))
FORMULA #4:
BATTER'S DOUBLE
double = ((4320 *DOUBLE)/(AB
+ ( W-IW)+HBP))-90
FORMULA #5:
BATTER'S TRIPLE
triple = ((4320 *TRIPLE)/(AB
+ (W-IW)+HBP))-1S
FORMULA #6:
BATTER'S HOMERUN
home run = ((4320 *HOMERUN)/(AB
+ (W-IW)+HBP))-50
FORMULA #7:
BATTER'S PATTERN CHART
use chart - not really a
forrnula!
FORMULA
#8: BATTER'S STRIKEOUT
k=(216*K)/(AB+(W-IW)+HBP)) -
17
FORMULA #9:
BATTER'S gbA
gbA
=((1140*DP)/(AB+(W-IW)+RBP)
FORMULA #10:
BATTER'S 1ST SB
SUCCESS #
somlSB=((SB/(SB+CS)+.13) *20
FORMULA #11:
BATTER'S 2ND SB SUCCESS#
som2SB (somlSB/3) +1
FORMULA #12:
BATTER'S LEAD
CHANCES
somSBLEAD =36 * ((SB + CS)
/((H + W +
HBP) *.8s)~(D+ T+ HR)
FORMULA #13: ASTERISKS
som* = IF ( somlSB + somSBLEAD)> 24
FORMULA #14: FIELDER'S ERRORS
somE=(e* 1458)/INNINGS FIELDED
Detail, explanations and a few
alternative methods are contained in the articles that have been published each
month since the January STAT FAN.
To create basic cards, simply remove
the HBP in each formula.
Remember, for more accurate results, replace
the last number in FORMULA #1 and FORMULAS #4-8 with the league mean. Compute
the league mean by plugging the actual league-total statistics into the same
formula.
Lefty/Righty individual and league
totals are required to do accurate lefty/righty cards.
Here are thoughts on the few aspects
not covered in the formulas:
BUNTING
Reputation carries a heavy burden here.
Stats for sacrifice hits are insufficient. For instance, Don Mattingly is a B
bunter this year despite 0 sacrifice hits in 1991. Use that player's last card
rating for bunting and hit & run with one exception: If that player has 10
or more sacrifice hits, make him an A.
OUTFIELDERS' ARMS
Reputation reigns again. The only barometer
other than the previous year's rating would be the Elias Fielding Ratings
(outfielder's arms) which comes out mid-season.
CATCHERS' ARMS
This may be solvable, but too many
N or W POWER
This vague rating is meant to prevent
weak hitters from hitting pitcher's HRs, not identify power hitters. Best rule
of thumb would be to give all players with a 30+ somHR (30 subchances) an N
rating. Give all those with 0 somHR a W. Then peruse the remaining players for
those who are usually Ns, but had off years. Hate to leave it like that, but it
really can be that vague historically.
What would this all mean without a decent rating system to put it all together for you? There is an excellent example of SOM ability expressed as a single number: The batter rating system. This will make your Bondses, Griffeys, and Ripkens rise to the top.
RATING = (somH
+ (((somW+ somHBP)
* 0.8) + (((somHR * 6) + somT
* 4) + (somD
* 2)) 1(116 - (somH + somW +
so#viHBP))~
+ ((som#15B + som~2SB) * 0.1)
- (somDP
0.1)
Note: By presorting the players to be
rated by position, a more exact rating can be obtained (for each position). To
tell what players are the best at each position, add the following to the end
of the RATING formula:
(4 - somFIELDING) *10)
These formulas and the two charts
(HITTER'S PATTERN and PRIORITY) are all the tools needed to create your own
hitter's cards from top to bottom. They are only tools, though. Your sweat on
trial on error is still needed to make these tools work effectively for you.
Next month, we will hold class on how
to read/write formulas such as these, and then delve into Prognosticating 102
=The Pitcher's Cards.