9 5~A'Tf~ Octo6er 1992
[~F
Prognosticating SOM Pitching
By Bruce Bundy
I don't believe in ghosts, but when you work on these
formulas for so long, some things just haunt you until you want to scream.
It's so easy
to assume that if hitters get half, and pitchers get hall, that everything
should be in half.
Ohhh,
not to be.
There's a
certain amount of fear when you enter the dark, mirrored side of pitching. The
pitcher' sand batter's formulas are similar and interact. For instance, if you
subtract 9.1 from the batter's walk, you would also subtract 9.1 from the
pitcher's walk in the same league.
The formulas
you will see beginning with this issue for pitchers' WALKS, Ds, Ts, HRs, and Ks
are reliable. But looming heavily over the pitcher's card are the X-Chart
chances.
Those chances,
which are affected by the team's fielding quality, add to or subtract from a
pitcher's hits, doubles and triples. And that variable makes the formula for
pitchers' HIT the scariest of all.
We will deal
with the X-Chart next month.
First,
pitching statistics must be translated from innings pitched (IP) into plate
appearances (PAs), or, commonly known as Total Batters Faced (TBF). This
eliminates the erratic behavior of IPs, such as counting a double play as two
outs.
The statistic
TBF is available to you through the USA Today Baseball Weekly (for the first
Let's Formulate It! This is one in a series of at'ticles on forecast-~
mg Strat-O-Matic baseball cards. Bruce Bundy has been at it since 1968 and
says he achieves up to 95 percent accuracy. But keep in mind that only the
game company has the correct formulas, that many of them rely on statistics
not readily available and that some ratings are subjective. Contments should be directed to: Let's Formulate
It!, c/o Bruce Bundy, 4474 Outlook Dr., Brooklyn, OH 44144 |
time this year), or maybe
through your local paper. If no source is available to you, here are some
suggestions for estimating TBF:
FORMULA #14: Total Batters Faced (TBF)
TBF = ( IP * 2.95) + Hits + (walks minus intentional walks)
OR
TBF = ( hits I pitcher's batting average) + hits + (walks minus intentional walks)
Use either of
these, depending upon the statistics available to you.
TBF is the
equivalent to plate appearances for hitters. Now equipped with a pitcher's baseline,
let's pursue the pitcher's formula for Walks.
FORMULA #15: Pitcher's Walk
PWalk = (( W - 1W) * 216 ) I ( TBF)) - 9
Pitcher's walk = (( walks minus intentional walks )
times 216) divided by (total batters faced )) minus 9
How it works: Intentional
walks are deducted from the walk total. Then multiplied by the overall card
chances (216). This figure is then divided by the Total Batters Faced. Finally,
subtract the walk on the average hitter's card (9).
Intentional
walks are as important to pitchers as they are to hitters. If you can't find
this difficult-to-locate statistic, try using the 10-percent rule as suggested
with hitters (walks minus ~0 percent). Or, maybe 5 percent for starting
pitchers and 15 percent for relievers. Along with that, you may want to
research pitchers' prior seasons to determine their ratio of
walks-to-intentional walks. This is usually reliable.
Advanced: Replace the average hitter's walk (9) with the same
number formulated for the advanced hitter; that is, 9.1 for the 1991 AL and 8.7
for the 1991 NL (see the January 1992 STRAT FAN).
Hit By Pitch
does not appear on the pitcher's card, soit doesn't enter into the formulas
here.
The 93 percent
accuracy rate of this formula depends on accurate intentional walk data. The
better your source, the better the result. Find a good final stats publication
and you'll be in good shape.
Easy, huh?
Fearlessly, our next step is into the abyss known as the Pitcher's Hit.