The Toughest Formula
SOM Secret on Pitcher's Hit Requires Guessing
Let's Formulate It!
This is one in a series of articles on forecasting StratOMatic
baseball cards. Bruce Bundy has been at it since 1968 and says he achieves up
to 95 percent accuracy. But keep in mind that only the game company has the
correct formulas, that many of them rely on statistics not readily available
and that some ratings are subjective.
Comments should be directed to: Let's Formulate It!, c/o Bruce Bundy,
4474 Outlook Dr., Brooklyn, OH 44144
By Bruce Bundy
Of the 30odd formulas this
series will eventually provide, the one for the hit chances off the pitcher’s
card has been the most difficult. It has
been so for 20 years. After building and
rebuilding this formula we have this: A new formula, untested by time, but one
which should be 95 percent accurate 95 percent of the time.
As always, we expect to keep
refining our work and are eager for the suggestions of other formulators out
there to achieve even greater accuracy.
FORMUlA # 16a: PITCHER'S HIT
psomH = (((h * (168  psomW))/TBF)  ((78  psomW) *
.265)) + ((((2 * opp.BA) .265) * 30)  4.9
Pitcher’s somHit equals (((hits yielded times (168
minus pitcher’s som WALK)) divided by Total Batters Faced) minus ((78 minus
pitcher’s som WALK)) times .265) times 30) minus 4.9
How it works: The
formula breaks into two parts; hits allowed from the 78 nonXCHART chances on
each pitcher's card and hits allowed from the 30 xCHART chances.
The 168 in this formula is what's
left of the 216 combined pitcher/batter card chances. minus 30 XCHART. 9
batter's walk (use the same number as the year's average batter). and 9 chances
I'm not sure of. (For advanced cards, subtract 1 from the 168 to reflect HBP.)
The .265 is the league batting average
(this will change from year to year  use the same figure for figuring both the
batter's hit and the pitcher's hit chances and league to league. For advanced
you will need leftvrighty league averages).
The 4.9 is the average number of
hits yielded from the XCHART.
XCHART
VALUES By Position (with chances from Pitcher’s card)
FLDG 
P (2) 
C (3) 
1B (2) 
2B (6) 
3B (3) 
SS (7) 
LF (2) 
CF (3) 
RF (2) 
1 
0.00 
0.15 
0.00 
0.00 
0.00 
0.00 
0.00 
000 
000 
2 
0.20 
0.15 
0.20 
0.60 
0.30 
0.70 
0.30 
045 
030 
3 
0.30 
0.15 
0.40 
1.20 
0.60 
1.40 
0.60 
0.90 
0.60 
4 
0.40 
0.15 
0.60 
1.80 
090 
2 .10 
1.10 
1.45 
1.10 
5 
0.60 
0.15 
0.80 
2.40 
1.20 
2.80 
1. 50 
2.25 
1.50 
AVG 
0.30 
0.15 
0.30 
0.90 
0.45 
1.05 
0.50 
0.75 
0.50 
Each position has a 15 fielding
rating, followed by the actual amount of hits surrendered. For instance, any
"2" infielder surrenders two hits in 20 fieldingchart splits, or,
.10; multiply that by the chances and you get .20 for a firstbaseman, .60 for a
secondbaseman, and so on.
The A stands for the Average of
ratings 14. The 5 rating doesn't figure in the average, since. so far, it only
represents players out of position. All pitchers are 2s.
When you total the averages for
all positions. the average XCHART yield is 4.90 hits out of the 30 possible
XCHART chances. Here's how each 1991
American League team's fielding converts into XCHART hits:
1991 TEAM 
P 
C 
lB 
2B 
3B 
55 
LF 
CF 
RF 
TOTAL 












2 
2. 
4 
;li~ 
.A. 
2 
3 
.4 
2 

DETROIT 
2 
3 
4 
2 
2 
2 
3 
1 
3 
4.05 
NEWYORK 
2 
3 
t ~ 
3 
4 
3  
.4,  
2 
1 
540 


























T~ 




i 












CALIFORNIA 

2 
2 
. 
2 
2 
4 
3 
4 
5.40 
KANSAS CITY 









535 
OAKLAND 










ThXAS 










ALpX 1991 Average' 4 ti per
team 
How it works: Subtract the ALpX average l'r()m the team total and add the
difference at the end of the PITCHER'S HIT formula. Result: A pitcher with
aboveaverage defense will bear more of the brunt of his hits allowed on his
own card than the pitcher whose defense is more porous. Therefore, two pitchers
with identical stats. but for different teams, may have different hit chances.
These ratings reflect a composite
of the starters at every position. with the influence of parttimers. These are
estimated ratings. not an exact accounting for every player's playing time.
For instance, Texas' ratings
assume that Juan Gonzalez (a 2 in LF, a 3 in CF) shares time in LF with a host
of4s and in CF with Gary Pettis (a I). It's not as precise as what SOM uses.
but it series the purpose of comparing a team's defensive ability versus the
average.
Note that the average of all
these ratings is 4.88 per team. compared to the 4.90 average we cited earlier
as the average xCHART yield. On balance, the leaguewide average should be.
and is, average.
If you don't have all the stats
in the formula above. here is a shortform that yields 90 percentplus accuracy
about 90 percent of the time.
when it's wrong.
it can go way wrong. So be warned.
FORMULA # 16h: PITCHER'S HIT
pHIT = (((oppBA  .265) + oppBA) * ( 78  sompW ) 5.25
PITCHER'S HIT equals (((the opponents batting average minus .263 )
plus the opponents hitting average ) times ( 78 minus the pitcher's SOM walk
result ) 5.25
How it works: This is equivalent to the hitter's formula, where .265 is a
general league average and the 78 is the 108 chances on every card, minus the
30 XCHART chances. The 5.25 was the best XCHART compensation number through
trial and error.
Next outing we return to normal.
highly efficient prognosticating.
Next month: Pitcher's DOUBLE, TRIPLE, and HOMERUN.